POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook briefing
With less than a year to go before the EU election, leaders from Spain to Germany have over the past weeks signaled that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in pole position to secure the nomination for another term at the helm of the EU executive, if she wants it.
Von der Leyen faces an uphill battle to convince Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who’s clashed with Brussels over Hungary’s misuse of EU funds and over sanctions against Russia. Orbán’s Political Director, Balázs Orbán, is now warning that Hungary’s support for VDL is no longer a given.
“We were very supportive of her,” he told my POLITICO colleague Paola Tamma in an interview. “But now she’s pushing her own political agenda without consulting member states, on geopolitics, relationship with the U.S. and China, on war issues, sanctions.”
The last point, sanctions, has been a particularly thorny issue for Hungary, which maintains strong economic ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime, and still imports pipeline oil and gas from Russia, unlike most of the rest of the EU. Balázs Orbán argued that under VDL, “the way the Commission is operating is not good for unity, it is divisive,” and added: “They come up with a proposal and then put pressure on member states to say yes.”
Asked about the EU’s decision to block part of Hungary’s subsidies over corruption and rule of law concerns, Orbán said that “Brussels’ room for manoeuvre is getting narrower. They have to give us some kind of positive signal.”
Balázs Orbán suggested Hungary’s ruling party wanted to join a block of hard-right and center-right parties to secure a majority in the European Parliament — but admitted that Poland and Germany, where the center-right have ruled out cooperating with far-right parties, would be “a problem.”
Asked whether Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz MEPs would join the ECR group in the European Parliament, he said “this is one normal landing space for us,” adding: “The problem is how the right and center right will cooperate after elections and get a majority. We want to support the right and cooperate with the center-right.”
It’s doubtful such a right-wing alliance would secure enough votes, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. But Balázs Orbán said he was optimistic. “I think we have a chance, I think it will be very close. In France, the right will win. In Italy, the right will win, in Germany, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the right is going to win, and those are the biggest countries. In Spain, it will be close. In all major countries some kind of right is going to win.”
As a member of the Council, Hungary has a say on whether VDL will secure a second term. According to the EU treaties, the European Parliament elects the Commission President proposed by EU countries, but in practice, EU leaders choose a candidate and the Parliament rubberstamps him or her. While EU countries have traditionally agreed unanimously on a candidate, unanimity is not required. EU countries can propose a Commission president with a qualified majority of votes. In other words: Hungary has no veto.
Balázs Orbán signaled Hungary could block Ukraine’s next steps toward EU accession over its treatment of Hungarian minorities.“The Ukrainian position on Hungarian minorities is just totally unacceptable,” he said.”Until this problem is solved we will not be able to support the EU enlargement process toward Ukraine. This is a rock solid position. If they want to be members of the EU, they should know better.”
Hungary claims Kyiv is discriminating against Hungarian ethnic minorities by limiting their rights to education in their native tongue. Hungary wants Kyiv to return to the status quo in its treatment of national minorities, Orbán said. “[Hungary wants Ukraine to give] the same right for Hungarian minorities as they had before the start of the war. What they had was OK for us.”
“The other thing is how to have NATO and EU enlargement while they’re in the middle of a war? In the long term, there are also serious concerns that would have to be addressed,” Orbán said. On Sunday, Hungarian Minister Gergely Gulyás said the West should give Russia security guarantees and ban Ukraine from joining NATO in order to ensure a lasting peace.
